tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12487611.post112976448498251261..comments2023-07-01T05:31:58.501-06:00Comments on Signs of insanity: Mind: Natural or Supernatural?Johnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10876775111703252840noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12487611.post-53887505404238793722007-06-25T12:53:00.000-06:002007-06-25T12:53:00.000-06:00FYI: Statasticians always set the cut-off probabil...FYI: Statasticians always set the cut-off probability (alpha) before doing the study. Typically, you're not going to be taken seriously if your alpha > 0.05. DePoe should only have rejected the defacto hypothesis "the mind is natural" (H_0) if the probability of seeing his findings given H_0 was less than 0.05.Jachttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01622919505576895393noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12487611.post-1130017182415542372005-10-22T15:39:00.000-06:002005-10-22T15:39:00.000-06:00I do know that I don't believe in the supernatural...I do know that I don't believe in the supernatural.Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10876775111703252840noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12487611.post-1130004001766589592005-10-22T12:00:00.000-06:002005-10-22T12:00:00.000-06:00I dont know if I believe in the SupernaturalI dont know if I believe in the SupernaturalAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01663569050519765509noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12487611.post-1129789213311082172005-10-20T00:20:00.000-06:002005-10-20T00:20:00.000-06:00I have also seen this type of thing elsewhere. I w...I have also seen this type of thing elsewhere. I was perusing <A HREF="http://craigslist.org" REL="nofollow">craigslist.org</A>, the <A HREF="http://seattle.craigslist.org" REL="nofollow">Seattle page</A> in particular, and someone was using mathematics to argue that the the Bible is completely true because the prophecies were true. He was also talking about probability, but his argument was even more arbitrary and exemplified his utter lack of mathematic proficiency. I'm not sure if he meant the so-called "Bible Code" which was <A HREF="http://cs.anu.edu.au/~bdm/dilugim/StatSci/" REL="nofollow">proved to be merely probability</A>, or other prophecies, but it really is irrelevant. He claimed that the Bible has to be divine inspiration because otherwise it is not mathematically possible for the predictions to be correct. The post has been deleted, but his analogy to the prophecies(and mind you that he never said what prophecies) was this: <BR/> [He first stated that if he said it would rain tomorrow, he would have a 50/50 chance of being right, and if he said it would rain at 9 o'clock, he would have a 25% chance of being right]<BR/> "First I had a 50/50 chance, now perhaps I have lessened to 25% chance of being right. And suppose I further say it will start at 9:00 and end at 2:00- That reduced my chances another 50% down to 12 and a half-ish. But suppose I add 300 uncertain elements. I couldn't hit it!" <BR/> What the hell does that even mean? Obviously, this man is a complete moron. If you aren't physically ill at this point, please discontinue reading and beat yourself senseless. If you are feeling a bit queasy, then get to the toilet quickly, before you get stomach acid all over your perfectly good keyboard.tomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10680796021596355761noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12487611.post-1129768339590869732005-10-19T18:32:00.000-06:002005-10-19T18:32:00.000-06:00Fixed the broken link. And finished reading the p...Fixed the broken link. And finished reading the paper. You're right. The probability argument is useless. If I read it right (hurriedly), he is claiming a probability of 0.25 is small enough to reject the claim, but since the probabilities seemed arbitrary, it's rather useless. I followed the beginning parts, but he lost me about the time he started making arbitrary calculations.<BR/><BR/>My suspicion is that there are physical mechanisms involved, but that the system is so complicated (and likely chaotic) that you can't trace out direct causal pathways.Qalmleahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17131154882107531113noreply@blogger.com